76ers strike out on trade for young Rockets big man with elite potential…

On July 18, the Sixers can offer Joel Embiid a three-year, $192.9 million contract extension. He would have to decline his $59.0 million player option for the 2026-27 season and would then earn the following (based on current projections):

Embiid would have to sign the extension prior to the first day of the 2024-25 regular season. Since he still has multiple years left on his contract, he will be ineligible to sign an extension once the regular season begins.

If he declines to sign an extension this summer, the Sixers could offer him a four-year, $266.7 million max extension next offseason. He could instead decide to test unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2026, when he’d be eligible for a five-year, $345.3 million (!) max deal.

So, should the Sixers offer Embiid an extension this offseason? And should the big fella take it? Let’s walk through the reasons both for and against it.

Why would Embiid accept a three-year, $192.9 million extension now if he could be eligible for a five-year, $345.3 million contract as a free agent two years from now? Both his age and injury history loom large.

Embiid turned 30 in March and still has yet to make it past the conference semifinals. Although a majority of his injuries tend to be fluky—remember when he broke his face on Markelle Fultz’s shoulder?—the narrative about his postseason underperformance will only get louder until he breaks through and guides the Sixers on a deep run.

Embiid is undeniably one of the NBA’s most dominant players right now. But will he be two years from now? Four years from now? How many teams would want to risk paying him more than $70 million in his age-35 and age-36 seasons?