Blue Jays Never Should Have Reached This Point with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
The Toronto Blue Jays have found themselves in a tricky and uncomfortable situation with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. It’s a scenario no one anticipated, least of all the organization itself, when the 24-year-old phenom first stepped onto the scene in 2019. He was, and remains, one of the most exciting talents in baseball, a generational hitter with a swing that captivated fans worldwide. Yet, as the Blue Jays begin to contemplate the next steps in their relationship with Guerrero, it’s becoming increasingly clear that they should never have allowed things to reach this point.
To understand how the Blue Jays arrived at this juncture, it’s essential to look back at how they got here. Guerrero Jr.’s emergence as a young superstar was supposed to be the harbinger of a new era for the Blue Jays. He was the centerpiece of a rebuilding project that included players like Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Together, this group was supposed to lead the Blue Jays back to postseason contention and, ultimately, to championship glory.
In his first two seasons in the big leagues, Guerrero showed flashes of his immense talent. However, it was his breakout 2021 campaign that solidified his place as one of the premier young players in the game. With a .311 batting average, 48 home runs, and 111 RBIs, Guerrero finished second in MVP voting that year, behind only Shohei Ohtani. The world took notice. Toronto, a city that had long been hungry for a return to baseball relevance, was energized, and the franchise looked poised for a long period of success.
But as the 2021 season came to a close, cracks in the Blue Jays’ foundation began to show. Guerrero, though undeniably talented, appeared to plateau. His numbers dipped slightly in 2022, and his defensive play, particularly at first base, became a source of concern. This wasn’t the prodigious slugger who had once seemed poised to carry the team to greater heights. Instead, Guerrero had evolved into a player with significant question marks.
While Guerrero’s offensive numbers were still solid, they were no longer the transcendent numbers of his MVP-caliber season. His power seemed to wane slightly, his plate discipline suffered, and the once-immense potential he had flashed in 2021 seemed to have stagnated. The Blue Jays began to ask themselves whether Guerrero could still be the centerpiece of their lineup or if they had already seen the best of him.
That question alone should never have existed.
The Blue Jays had, and still have, a valuable asset in Guerrero, but how the organization handled his development—both on and off the field—played a significant role in the team’s inability to maximize his potential. The front office failed to provide the necessary support, resources, and strategic direction that could have propelled Guerrero to the next level in his career. The Blue Jays were content to coast on the back of Guerrero’s natural talent, and the results speak for themselves. They should have acted sooner.
One of the most glaring issues in this relationship has been Guerrero’s conditioning. His physical transformation over the years has been widely discussed and, in some instances, criticized. Guerrero entered the majors with a reputation as an athletic marvel, a player capable of generating immense power thanks to his physical gifts. However, his commitment to maintaining peak conditioning has come under scrutiny. For a player of his caliber, fitness is paramount, and Guerrero’s occasional struggles with his weight and conditioning have been well-documented. His inability to maintain the optimal fitness levels necessary for a player with his frame and position has raised serious doubts about his long-term durability.
Instead of addressing this early, the Blue Jays allowed Guerrero to develop a reputation of inconsistency regarding his physical preparation. It became a constant discussion point around the team, with fans and pundits alike wondering if Guerrero had truly reached his full potential. The club did little to address the issue head-on, as Guerrero’s performance often indicated that his fitness was a persistent obstacle.
This brings us to the heart of the matter: how could a team with so much invested in Guerrero’s future, both financially and emotionally, fail to support his development in the most critical area? There should have been a comprehensive plan from the very beginning to ensure Guerrero was as prepared as possible—physically, mentally, and tactically—for a successful career. Instead, the Blue Jays’ laissez-faire attitude towards his development, especially his conditioning, left them in a situation where they now find themselves questioning his trajectory.
Moreover, it’s impossible to ignore the impact that Guerrero’s struggles have had on the Blue Jays’ overall roster construction. This franchise, desperate for leadership, has struggled to build a truly balanced team around its star. Guerrero, when performing at his best, could carry the team for stretches, but the lack of consistent contributions from other key players has made this difficult. While the likes of Bo Bichette and George Springer have contributed, their efforts have not been enough to complement Guerrero’s own struggles.
The lack of a true supporting cast has also exposed a flaw in the Blue Jays’ strategy. When a player like Guerrero is seen as the centerpiece of a team, everything should be designed to maximize that player’s strengths while minimizing weaknesses. But for years, the Blue Jays have lacked the supplementary pieces needed to do so. The front office has taken a piecemeal approach, relying on a series of stopgap signings rather than securing key pieces that would alleviate pressure on Guerrero. Had they done more to surround him with talent, it’s possible that the team’s development—and Guerrero’s as well—would have taken a more upward trajectory.
Additionally, the Blue Jays missed opportunities to maximize Guerrero’s peak years. With the team’s window of contention theoretically wide open, their reliance on Guerrero’s inconsistent performances at times has stalled them from making the necessary moves that could have catapulted them to the next level. Instead of addressing their needs through trades or free-agent signings that could have filled gaps, the Blue Jays focused too much on developing Guerrero’s potential without realizing that their competitive window might close before he reached his full promise.
Then there is the looming question of Guerrero’s long-term fit with the team. The Blue Jays are now faced with a situation where they must either commit to him long-term or explore trade options, and this is a difficult choice to make. The front office should never have allowed it to come to this.
In baseball, every decision made by an organization—whether it’s about player development, roster construction, or player conditioning—has long-term ramifications. The Blue Jays’ failure to address Guerrero’s needs early enough and provide him with the proper environment to thrive is now coming back to haunt them. If they want to move forward as a competitive franchise, they must re-evaluate their approach, not just with Guerrero, but with the overall direction of the team.
The Blue Jays still have the chance to right the ship with Guerrero Jr., but it will take concerted effort. A greater commitment to player development, better resources around conditioning, and a more cohesive strategy to surround him with talent are necessary if the franchise hopes to make the most out of their investment in the young superstar.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is still a generational talent, and the Blue Jays are fortunate to have him. But for the team to reach its full potential, they must make changes now. The path forward is not simple, but it’s one that, with the right moves, could lead to the kind of sustained success that was always envisioned when Guerrero first donned the Blue Jays’ uniform. They must act, and act quickly, to ensure that the potential they saw in him years ago doesn’t slip away without reaching its peak.
